Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
