Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability provided through current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
